Colmar Brunton Poll, August 2008

The minor party results for the Colmar Brunton Poll are as follows:

• United Future              0.7%
• ACT                             0.6%
• The Family Party 0.3%
• Christian Heritage       0.2%
• Libertarianz                 0.2%
• The Kiwi Party              0.1%
• Progressives               0.1%

Key points: The Family Party is still steady at 0.3%, Kiwi is 0.1%, same as last month. The Family Party plus former Christian party votes (Christian Heritage and Destiny) is 0.5%, same as last month. United Future has picked up a few votes and ACT has dropped. Libertarianz and Progressives are registering now when they didn’t last month. This fluctuation illustrates the extremely high error associated with these low percentages.

The Family Party is the highest polling party outside of parliament, polling higher than Kiwi and Progressives, both of which have current MPs and therefore greater publicity by default. The percentage should pick up a bit before the election, once we start campaigning nationwide.

The other interesting point about this poll is that the Green party is at 3.5%, which if they don’t get an electorate seat (which they haven’t yet), would see them out of parliament. As much of the social policies we are against (such as the smacking law) were championed by the Greens, having them out of parliament would probably be positive for families, and probably wouldn’t be negative for the environment as their environmental policies aren’t always very practical anyway. If their votes continue to decline this could be a very interesting election result.

Poll results

This weekend’s Fairfax and Roy Morgan polls have not published the results for minor parties outside parliament. But I have recorded the poll results for the latest Colmar Brunton poll, which places The Family Party equal to United Future, here. I will keep this page updated as further poll results which mention The Family Party are released.

Current status of minor parties (Colmar Brunton July poll):

• The Family Party:     0.3%
• United Future:         0.3%
• The Kiwi Party:         0.1%

No polls have been released for Mangere or any other key electorate for The Family Party that I am aware of, but I will post them here when they are reported. Unofficial data collected by the party shows we are doing very well in Mangere.

However a Colmar Brunton poll for Tauranga has been released. The Kiwi Party is relying on Larry Baldock to win Tauranga to achieve any seats after the election. Mr Baldock does not even register in this poll, results being:

• Simon Bridges, National 48%
• Winston Peters, NZ First 28%
• Anne Pankhurst, Labour 15%

This seat will be a battle between Simon Bridges and Winston Peters. There will be strong media coverage of both of these candidates, as Winston Peters may need this seat to keep NZ First in parliament. I cannot see how Larry Baldock could make any inroads under these circumstances, which means The Kiwi Party cannot obtain any seats in parliament unless they cross the 5% threshold – which is highly unlikely.

The only conservative party with a chance of actually getting in and making a difference after this election is The Family Party.