Poll Results

It is difficult to find the polling results for parties outside of parliament, as these are rarely reported in the media. I will attempt to record relevant poll results on this page as they become available, if you have further information I have missed please email me on samuel.dennis@familyparty.org.nz.

Note in every poll that people are just asked who they would vote for and whatever they say is recorded, whether or not the party actually exists. At these low percentages the error is large, as only 1000 people are asked who they would vote for for each poll. A long term 3 month average allows a sample of 3000 people to be looked at, and should give a more accurate result to any individual poll. This is listed below, followed by the individual polls.

I include a Family Party + Christian Heritage + Destiny NZ value in each poll. This is because CH and Destiny have been disbanded (but not all voters have figured that out yet), and the Family Party is the closest replacement for these two parties.

Three month average Colmar Brunton poll results (July, Aug, Sep)

• United Future                        0.33%
• Christian Heritage                 0.26%
• The Family Party                   0.2%
• Kiwi Party                              0.1%
• Libertarianz                          0.06%
• Progressive                          0.03%
• Destiny NZ                           0.03%
• Family + CH + Destiny         0.5%

On a long-term average, the Family Party is just below United Future, double the vote of Kiwi Party, and well above Progressive. Family + CH + Destiny is 0.5%, so if we can get these votes we will be well above United Future. Pretty reasonable polling for a new party who most people don’t know about yet.

Colmar Brunton Poll Sep 08 Minor Parties

• Christian Heritage                 0.5%
• ALCP                                     0.2%
• Kiwi Party                               0.1%
• One NZ Party                         0.1%
• Alliance                                  0.1%
• Democrats for Social Credit  0.1%

Discussion is here.

Colmar Brunton Poll, August 2008

• United Future              0.7%
• ACT                             0.6%
• The Family Party 0.3%
• Christian Heritage       0.2%
• Libertarianz                 0.2%
• The Kiwi Party              0.1%
• Progressives               0.1%

Key points: The Family Party is still steady at 0.3%, Kiwi is 0.1%, same as last month. The Family Party plus former Christian party votes (Christian Heritage and Destiny) is 0.5%, same as last month. United Future has picked up a few votes and ACT has dropped. Libertarianz and Progressives are registering now when they didn’t last month. This fluctuation illustrates the extremely high error associated with these low percentages.

The Family Party is the highest polling party outside of parliament, polling higher than Kiwi and Progressives, both of which have current MPs and therefore greater publicity by default. The percentage should pick up a bit before the election, once we start campaigning nationwide.

Colmar Brunton Poll, July 2008

• ACT NZ                       1.2%
• The Family Party: 0.3%
• United Future NZ:        0.3%
• The Kiwi Party:              0.1%
• Christian Heritage:       0.1%
• Destiny NZ:                  0.1%
• Don’t know / Refused:  12%

Key points: The Family Party is equal to United Future, and well ahead of Kiwi. Some voters are still saying Christian Heritage and Destiny, which no longer exist. The Family Party is the closest to these parties policy-wise and it is likely that these votes would move to Family. This would place The Family Party on 0.5%, ahead of United Future and well ahead of Kiwi.

This is an excellent result for a party with no current MPs, to poll ahead of three parties (including Progressives) with current MPs (who would therefore be expected to be better known), especially before the election campaign has started in earnest. The total number of votes is still low but can be expected to rise as we start campaigning nationwide, many voters don’t know we exist yet.